Abstract:
Does ongoing exposure to political violence prompt subject groups to support or oppose compromise in situations of intractable conflict? If so, what is the mechanism underlying these processes? Political scholarship neither offers conclusive arguments nor sufficiently addresses individual-level forms of exposure to violence in the context of political conflict, particularly the factors mediating political outcomes. We address this by looking at the impact of exposure to political violence, psychological distress, perceived threat, and ethos of conflict on support for political compromise. A mediated model is hypothesized whereby exposure to political violence provokes support for the ethos of conflict and hinders support for compromise through perceived psychological distress and perceived national threat. We examined representative samples of two parties to the same conflict: Israelis (N ¼ 781) and Palestinians from Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank (N ¼ 1,196). The study’s main conclusion is that ethos of conflict serves as a mediating variable in the relationship between exposure to violence and attitudes toward peaceful settlement
of the conflict
Over the past decade, some forty countries have experienced armed conflict. Leitenberg (2006) documents the impact of conflict through casualties across the twentieth century: between 1955 and 2000, forty-one million lives (many civilians) were lost to conflict and political violence. A high percentage of people in conflict zones suffer from psychological distress. Despite this, in almost every society engaged in violent conflict, there is at least a segment that supports continuing the conflict (Bar-Tal 2013). The political consequences of ongoing exposure of civilians to violence and their views of the conflict is a vital challenge.
heir views of the conflict is a vital challenge. This discussion fits into conflict scholars’ debate over whether institutions of violence and control prompt obedience or rebellion—the division is between studies of authoritarianism and conflict. We focus on the latter. Some scholars state increased violence diminishes upheaval by weakening opposition and convincing fence-sitters to eschew confrontation (Diamond 2002; McFaul 2002; Olson 1971; Ostrom 1998). Others posit the opposite linear relationship—violence encourages upheaval by creating conditions so unbearable that people believe only insurrection can work (Francisco 1996; Kalyvas 2006; Tullock 1971; Wood 2003; Longo, Canetti, and Hite-Rubin 2014).
This debate is relevant to intractable conflicts—persistent confrontations with violence, intensity, and durability (Bar-Tal 2013; Kriesberg 1993). In most such conflicts, civilians’ constant exposure to violence, and the resultant risk of death or injury, has severe psychological, economic, social, and political implications. The loss of life and property damage leads to massive economic costs as society becomes responsible for compensating victims and preventing recurring physical violence through massive military expenditures (Lifshitz 1998). The potential political impact of this prolonged conflict exposure is not clearly understood—does exposure to political violence encourage civilians to embrace conciliatory policies to end violence or does it harden political attitudes, fomenting militancy against an adversary perceived as aggressive and brutal?
Some rationalistic scholars present expected utility calculations reflecting the approach that when the costs of conflict are perceived as sufficiently high, parties will seek political solutions that will promise lower costs than continuing the conflict (Zartman 1989; Zartman and Touval 1985). The conflict is ‘‘ripe’’ for resolution when the two parties perceive a stalemate and when the costs of continuing the current level of violence are too high. Long-running violent conflicts are resistant to intervention, mediation, and negotiation processes (Ayres 2000; Coleman 2003; Graf, Kramer, and Nicolescou 2010). While the uncompromising position of parties involved may be attributed to the rational interests or values regarded as crucial to survival, their intransigence may be attributed to the cycle of violence characterizing intractable conflicts, with its many psychological implications (Bar-Tal 2013).
An Application of an Ecological Framework to Understand Risk Factors of PTSD Due to Prolonged Conflict Exposure: Israeli and Palestinian Adolescents in the Line of Fire
Abstract: Objective: Adolescents living in Israel and the Palestinian authority are exposed to political violence. This review examines psychosocial risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) organized within an ecological framework. Method: Relevant...
Conflict perception: a new scale with evidence from Israel and Palestine
Abstract: Purpose – The current work aims to introduce the concept of conflict perception and construct a scale that measures individual differences in perceptions about conflicts along religious, national and material dimensions. The concept and the measure are...
Why We Hate
Abstract: We offer a functional perspective on hate, showing that hate has a unique pattern of appraisals and action tendencies. Hate is based on perceptions of a stable, negative disposition of persons or groups. We hate persons and groups more because of who they...
Exposure to the 2014 Gaza War and Support for Militancy: The Role of Emotion Dysregulation
Abstract: Does individual-level exposure to political violence prompt conciliatory attitudes? Does the answer vary by phase of conflict? The study uses longitudinal primary datasets to test the hypothesis that conflictrelated experiences impact conciliation. Data were...
What Predicts Threat Perceptions Toward People Opposing to the Government? A Population-Based Study Following Umbrella Movement, Hong Kong
Abstract: We examined the incidence and predictors of threat perceptions toward people who oppose government action (i.e., protestors) following the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong (September 28th to December 15th, 2014). A population-representative sample of 1,208...
Collective Trauma From the Lab to the Real World: The Effects of the Holocaust on Contemporary Israeli Political Cognitions
Abstract: This research tested whether chronic or contextually activated Holocaust exposure is associated with more extreme political attitudes among Israeli Jews. Study 1 (N 5 57), and Study 2 (N 5 61) found that Holocaust primes increased support for aggressive...
Emotional Distress, Conflict Ideology, and Radicalization
Introduction: Terrorism and political violence (TPV), especially the indiscriminant kind targeting unarmed civilians, is one of the most severe challenges facing human societies. Direct ramifications are heavy, and can include loss of life and limb and a...
How Cyberattacks Terrorize: Cortisol and Personal Insecurity Jump in the Wake of Cyberattacks
Abstract: Do cyberattacks fuel the politics of threat? By what mechanism does it do so? To address these questions, we employ a technological and physiological experiment (2 · 2) involving a simulated cyberattack. Participants were randomly assigned to ‘‘cyberattack’’...
Cyberterrorism: its effects on psychological well-being, public confidence and political attitudes
Abstract: Does exposure to lethal and non-lethal cyberterrorism affect psychological well-being, public confidence and political attitudes? By what mechanisms do they do so? While cyberterrorism most often raises concerns about national security, its effects on...
Psychological Barriers to a Peaceful Resolution: Longitudinal Evidence from the Middle East and Northern Ireland
Abstract: Does individual-level exposure to political violence prompt conciliatory attitudes? Does the answer vary by phase of conflict? The study uses longitudinal primary datasets to test the hypothesis that conflictrelated experiences impact conciliation. Data were...