Abstract:
Does exposure to political violence prompt civilians to support peace? We investigate the determinants of civilian attitudes toward peace during ongoing conflict using two original panel datasets representing Israelis (n = 996) and Palestinians in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza (n = 631) (149 communities in total). A multi-group estimation analysis shows that individual-level exposure to terrorism and political violence makes the subject populations less likely to support peace efforts. The findings also confirm psychological distress and threat perceptions as the mechanism that bridges exposure to violence and greater militancy over time. The study breaks ground in showing that individual-level exposure – necessarily accompanied by psychological distress and threat perceptions – is key to understanding civilians’ refusal to compromise in prolonged conflict.
Ending long-standing conflicts is a first-order global goal; dozens of countries have been affected by ongoing armed civil conflict over the past decade.1 Given the growing proportion of civilian victims in political conflicts, there has been a concomitant increase in the number of people exposed to stressful events associated with such conflict. However, debate over the psychological effects of war and terrorism, and their political ramifications, remains in its nascence. One question in particular demands attention: how (and to what extent) does individual-level exposure to political violence (EPV) impact civilians’ willingness to compromise for peace – that is, to negotiate the core issues underlying a given prolonged conflict? We argue that (1) not all civilians amid conflict are exposed to violence the same degree and (2) variations in exposure may be associated with differences in attitudes toward peace. Civilians who are highly distressed and threatened as a result of exposure to war and terrorism are less likely to support diplomatic negotiation and peace.
We disaggregate data from Israel and Palestine to analyze the micro-foundations of prolonged conflict by examining EPV and its political effects. First we discuss the association between EPV and attitudes toward peace, and the psychological stress-threat mechanisms that characterize this process. Next, we present two-wave panels conducted in Israel and Palestine (the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem) in tandem. Our findings demonstrate that prolonged EPV has consequences beyond the harmful effects on individuals. Specifically, the concomitant psychological distress and sense of threat play an important role in modifying the attitudes of Israelis and Palestinians toward peace.
EXPOSURE TO VIOLENCE AND ATTITUDES TOWARD PEACE
In recent years, a growing body of work in political science has examined the effects of ongoing terrorism and political violence in the Middle East, Africa and Europe on political attitudes. Some studies, drawing on insights from economics, show that higher levels of terrorism translate to higher levels of right-wing voting and risk-seeking behaviors.2 Social psychologists have sought to uncover the mechanisms underlying such effects by drawing on the study of emotions,3 societal norms,4 racial prejudice,5 terror management theory6 and contact interventions.7 However, most studies that have examined these effects at the individual level have questioned respondents about their sentiments and perceptions of threat, but not about their direct exposure to violence.8 For instance, surveys of Americans following 9/11 point to heightened feelings of threat and anxiety, but do not differentiate between respondents who were exposed to the attacks through news reports and those who witnessed them in person, or who lost a family member or friend. To the best of our knowledge, no study has accounted for the effect of prolonged individual-level EPV on attitudes toward peace.
The post-traumatic stress literature has provided numerous insights into the mental health impact of EPV.9 In political scholarship, EPV was recently used to explain an array of political attitudes – support for combatants in Afghanistan,10 support for exclusionism11 or intragroup retaliation in Israel,12 conservatism in the United States13 and voting behavior14 – but not attitudes toward peace. This study is based on the premise that EPV is key to understanding the relationship between terrorism and political violence, on the one hand, and attitudes toward peace and compromise on the other.
How Personality Affects Vulnerability among Israelis and Palestinians following the 2009 Gaza Conflict
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An Application of an Ecological Framework to Understand Risk Factors of PTSD Due to Prolonged Conflict Exposure: Israeli and Palestinian Adolescents in the Line of Fire
Abstract: Objective: Adolescents living in Israel and the Palestinian authority are exposed to political violence. This review examines psychosocial risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) organized within an ecological framework. Method: Relevant...
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Abstract: Purpose – The current work aims to introduce the concept of conflict perception and construct a scale that measures individual differences in perceptions about conflicts along religious, national and material dimensions. The concept and the measure are...
Why We Hate
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Exposure to the 2014 Gaza War and Support for Militancy: The Role of Emotion Dysregulation
Abstract: Does individual-level exposure to political violence prompt conciliatory attitudes? Does the answer vary by phase of conflict? The study uses longitudinal primary datasets to test the hypothesis that conflictrelated experiences impact conciliation. Data were...
What Predicts Threat Perceptions Toward People Opposing to the Government? A Population-Based Study Following Umbrella Movement, Hong Kong
Abstract: We examined the incidence and predictors of threat perceptions toward people who oppose government action (i.e., protestors) following the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong (September 28th to December 15th, 2014). A population-representative sample of 1,208...
Collective Trauma From the Lab to the Real World: The Effects of the Holocaust on Contemporary Israeli Political Cognitions
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Emotional Distress, Conflict Ideology, and Radicalization
Introduction: Terrorism and political violence (TPV), especially the indiscriminant kind targeting unarmed civilians, is one of the most severe challenges facing human societies. Direct ramifications are heavy, and can include loss of life and limb and a...
How Cyberattacks Terrorize: Cortisol and Personal Insecurity Jump in the Wake of Cyberattacks
Abstract: Do cyberattacks fuel the politics of threat? By what mechanism does it do so? To address these questions, we employ a technological and physiological experiment (2 · 2) involving a simulated cyberattack. Participants were randomly assigned to ‘‘cyberattack’’...
Exposure to Violence, Ethos of Conflict, and Support for Compromise: Surveys in Israel, East Jerusalem, West Bank, and Gaza
Abstract: Does ongoing exposure to political violence prompt subject groups to support or oppose compromise in situations of intractable conflict? If so, what is the mechanism underlying these processes? Political scholarship neither offers conclusive arguments nor...